Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026 - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Evans

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Ross (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Durham (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Brown (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jeff Polakiewicz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kyle Carrington (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.06
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.77
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.54

Mason Brantley

35th • 4-2-1

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Randall Sims (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ada Pitts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mikey Kell (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eli7Sins Diaz III (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs ZACHARY JENSEN (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Trent Lynch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Draw	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.61

Zak Miller

29th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs JOE ENOS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Deibis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Wilkins (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Brown (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.15
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.18
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.96
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Paul Chen

33rd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kaylum Uribes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs JOE ENOS (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Zinn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs George Wehunt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stephen Helmly (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.64
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76

Stephen Higgs

43rd • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cole Smith (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Clifton Fowler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mikey Kell (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Harrelson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brian Dickson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Draw	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.40
R6	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Evan Dasher

52nd • 2-5-0

43%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trenton Gutridge (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Austin Harris (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ada Pitts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brian Dickson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cameron Norman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Eppard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.43
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Joshua Wells

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tim Kadom (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Macdonald Hutchinson (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.27
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.58
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.34
R5	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Joseph Watts

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ada Pitts (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Clifton Fowler (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Bey (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Draw	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Brandon Ross

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Scott Sharpe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aiden Tylavsky (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Randall Sims (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Cole Smith

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyruss Sennett (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Macgowan (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stephen Higgs (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.