Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026 - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ning Liu

24th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None ()

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Lyons (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ashley Gutridge (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aiden Tylavsky (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Colin Smith (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.29
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.33
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Trevor Rich

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nelson Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Smith (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.83
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Jason Macgowan

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Wilkins (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cole Smith (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.52
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.