Puffin, Hightail at Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ning Liu

24th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None ()

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zachary Lyons (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caleb Lolley (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jean Paul Negron (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ashley Gutridge (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aiden Tylavsky (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Colin Smith (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.32
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.29
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Trevor Rich

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nelson Torres (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kyle Carrington (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Colin Smith (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.10
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-

Jason Macgowan

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Wilkins (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 28:72

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Cole Smith (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.