Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 5-2-0
43%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
4.1
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aiden Tylavsky (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Brian Dickson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs George Wehunt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
Round 5: Win vs Trevor Rich (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55
Round 7: Win vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Puffin, Hightail | 35% | Win |
36th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Zippi Rollyson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Noah Zinn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nate Vargas (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
Round 5: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Pleiades, Superstar | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 80% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Loss |
53rd • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Drew Walker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joshua White (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Cameron Norman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mikey Kell (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs tyler whicker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Scott Sharpe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Brown (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Austin Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.