Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Colin Smith

18th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aiden Tylavsky (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Dickson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Wehunt (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Trevor Rich (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ning Liu (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.16
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.27
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.78

Trent Lynch

36th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zippi Rollyson (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Zinn (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Johnson-Averette (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nate Vargas (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Elaine Cao (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mason Brantley (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Jorge Negron

53rd • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Enos (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Drew Walker (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joshua White (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cameron Norman (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mikey Kell (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Billy Uribes

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs tyler whicker (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Hyatt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Sharpe (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

John Hortman

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Brown (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Austin Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.