Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Atlanta 2026

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tyruss Sennett

5th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Cole Smith (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Martinez (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Chen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brooks Olree (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Randy Davis (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.28
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Christopher Durham

11th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Baker (Dash I/O) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Blake Payne (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 66:34

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Evans (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Cook (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Raymond Griffin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.84
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.18
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.67

Michael Dirksen

40th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Donald Kell (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mikey Kell (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maxwell Martrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chris Martin (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stephen Rollyson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Zachary Lyons (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.54
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.