Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling: Valencia 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tilemachos Tsontakis

35th • 8-4-0

67%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs William Rao (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maxandre Jacqueline (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Grégory Lefebvre (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Francesco Zampieri (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Josep Tarrida (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs João Gomes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.23
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.72
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Gianluigi Lia

53rd • 7-5-0

58%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Alves (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bottino Valerio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Niccolò Borghi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Gérôme Francois (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (5.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.03
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.33
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Niccolò Borghi

54th • 7-5-0

92%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

4.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alejandro Garcia Lliso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Muntwyler (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alessio Bouko (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Samo Planinc (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Filipe Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daniel Fernandes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jose Luis Saenz Soria (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Thomas Davis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.03
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.20
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R5	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.27
R9	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Igor Wesołowski

62nd • 7-5-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

5.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael de Kok (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Viktor Nelipovich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs robin gasparini (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Keir Sweeney (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kit Valentine (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Stavros Stavromitros (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.70
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R7	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.37
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Jan Wojtecki

dropped • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Feng (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stavros Stavromitros (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Dobrowolski (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Coutellec (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Fernandes (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Luca Capoccioni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs None ()

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (6.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.10
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.18
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.29
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC		50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tim Coates

dropped • 6-5-0

73%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rob Catton (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diego Fernández Sánchez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Johannes Schorpp (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rob Thoen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Kiran Lee (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guillaume Moutardier (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

73% (8/11 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.14
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.23
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.36
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.43
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.52
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Kaloyan Nikov

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Léo Toulouse (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gianluca Razza (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tiziano Suran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Francesco Motta (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daniel Jimena Ortigosa (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.45
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Sebastiaan Knetsch

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Carrero (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Denis Gergov (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Valerio Colonna (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jose Alves (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.17
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.23
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Tim Greenaway

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kamil Grodecki (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Warre Sevens (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alvaro Toledano Benito (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs MARC JOSÉ VENTURA (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs axilleas siskopoulos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marko Antonic (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.75
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.67

robin gasparini

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Lux (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simone Roic (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Igor Wesołowski (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Manos Apostolakis (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Davide Oggioni (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Carlos Gutiérrez González (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.97
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Goran Lovric

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 30:70

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrés Sánchez García (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jeroen Caspers (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Artur Wysocki (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ville Ahtiainen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jaap IJlst (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.84
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.39
R6	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

José Guimarães

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gérôme Francois (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robin Lesage (Dash I/O) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brent Van de Staey (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Szymon Biesiekierski

dropped • 1-2-1

25%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Borja Apellaniz Aparicio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Héctor Serino Pérez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Renzo Schietgat (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexandre Laloy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Miw Valle

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dylan Chavelard (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carl Boyle (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pablo Miguel (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Diego Paoletti (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.69	1.25
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Thomas Harle

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Steinle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Manuel Martin-Fernandez

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rain Ööpik (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Asciano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.