Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Valencia 2025
Vynnset, Iron Maiden
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 22:78
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Valentin Varga (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Igor Makarev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nathan Hills (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Round 5: Win vs Oscar Gonzalez Muñoz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Martin Okruhlica (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jose Alves (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lukas Knirschnig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eric Steuer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Pantoja Sánchez (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Tim Greenaway (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Bousch (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Smith (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 22:78
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 20% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.