Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: Valencia 2025 — FaB-Results

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 10:90

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Valentin Varga (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Igor Makarev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Marlynn, Treasure Hunter

R4

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gustavo Cilleruelo (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Valentin Soloviev (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathanaël frederic (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.37
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.82
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.9

Diff

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lukasz Bigos (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathan Hills (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Dash I/O

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Oscar Gonzalez Muñoz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Martin Okruhlica (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jose Alves (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.55
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

axilleas siskopoulos

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 55:45

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lukas Knirschnig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emanuele Tozzi (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Steuer (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant

R5

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Pantoja Sánchez (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R6

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tim Greenaway (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.52
R5	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gustavo Caperan

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bogdan-Andrei Oros (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Bousch (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Cindra, Dracai of Retribution

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.31
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

Arakni, Marionette

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs kuba tambor (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 22:78

Kayo, Underhanded Cheat

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Smith (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.