Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonas Stoberock

5th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Kläsener (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Philipp Steinfort (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frederic Fuessmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.70
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.99
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.45
R13	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Maximilian Schmidt

18th • 5-1-0

100%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.59
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.34

Christopher Bizau

36th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

6.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexej Frikel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Rene [Puk] Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.31
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.93
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.67	2.91
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Maximilian Klein

19th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

5.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Walter Heidtmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Viet Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Simon Rueß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Fabio Albrecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.13
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.84
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Win	✗	0.71	3.59

Raphael Nero

27th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Finn Labe (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Simon Rueß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.48
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.32
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.40
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Timo Cullmann

33rd • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

5.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Frederic Fuessmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.71
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	2.71
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Rene [Puk] Hentschel

44th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.33
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.65
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.37
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dennis Krstic

49th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Bach (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Max Löhe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jascha Werth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kirill Antropov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.54
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.45
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.73	3.42
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Macorano

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Juan Victor Echeverria

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.4

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Harms (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Noah Dreckmann

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fahri Findik (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christian Weißling (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Davis Groza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Peter Stürmer

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.63

Viet Pham

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Stettin

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Klaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Brockhage (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Freddy Friedrich

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philipp Steinfort (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.