Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event
Verdance, Thorn of the Rose
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.4
Surp
5.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R14 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
3.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
95:5
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 96:4
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fahri Findik (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Fabio Albrecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Puffin, Hightail | 95% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R13 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 55% | Loss |
30th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
4.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Laura Wichert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Fabio Albrecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthias Kempter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
Round 10: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
Round 12: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Loss |
55th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
3.4
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Aaron Rose (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 76:24
80:20
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rene Farwer (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 80:20
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
Round 10: Loss vs Fahri Findik (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 73:27
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 80% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 75% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.1
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Peuker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Julius Ihle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Kirill Antropov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Philipp Steinfort (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Lambrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Paul Moerler (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73
Round 3: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 25% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Kilzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Martin Steinheuer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.