Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at National Championship

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Umut Kayan

64th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max Schmidt (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 82:18

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fahri Findik (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

85:15

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Johannes Kilzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.05
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.53

Daniel Peuker

69th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabio Albrecht (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 19:81

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 80:20

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Linh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.16
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Benjamin Harms

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.71
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-

Walter Heidtmann

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Rosenberger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Maximilian Klein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 23:77

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremie Pohl (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.