Levia, Shadowborn Abomination at National Championship 2025

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yorick Schulte

25th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roger Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Felix Krisch

22nd • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Duro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Peuker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 20:80

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Aaron Rose

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 24:76

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.