National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event - Levia, Shadowborn Abomination (CC)

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yorick Schulte

25th • 3-3-0

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Roger Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 31:69

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.81
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R12	CC	Puffin, Hightail	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Felix Krisch

22nd • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Duro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Peuker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Aaron Rose

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.