Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Robin Wagner

9th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 80:20

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R10	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.54
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Johannes Klaus

62nd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Stettin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martin Steinheuer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jascha Werth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-

Mert Gezgin

dropped • 3-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vincent Schreiber (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Johannes Klaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.10
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.37
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Simon Reuter

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

2.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Maximilian Stabenow (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matthias Kempter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Johannes Klaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.28
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.50

Frederic Fuessmann

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Davis Groza

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Stabenow (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.74
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Jeremie Pohl

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Walter Heidtmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Max Löhe

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Martynas Norbutas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nikolas Kersting (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.