Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025

Jarl Vetreiði

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luis Toeffels

14th • 5-1-0

50%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

6.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roger Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.16
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.17
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.00
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.72	3.71

Mikey Dwyer

34th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Davis Groza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Kläsener (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R10	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.78
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.94

Stephan Schwarz

41st • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.16
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Max Schmidt

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89

Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.