Jarl Vetreiði at National Championship 2025

Jarl Vetreiði

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luis Toeffels

14th • 5-1-0

33%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

7.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roger Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.18
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.22
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.50
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.73	3.80

Mikey Dwyer

34th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Davis Groza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Kläsener (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.21
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.83
R10	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.11
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.33

Stephan Schwarz

41st • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Max Schmidt

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 18:82

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Stürmer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.