Dash I/O at National Championship 2025

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Laurin Niehues

3rd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Reincke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.39
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.29
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.93
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.21
R14	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Marc Teunnissen

38th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Bach (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Maik Wiesen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.12
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.76
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.53

Xiaoliang Yang

45th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 75:25

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juan Victor Echeverria (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Felix Ebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Linus Albat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.27
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Thomas Preyer

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Frederic Fuessmann (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kirill Antropov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rene [Puk] Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Ilias Karamanis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.38
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.