Prism, Awakener of Sol at National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event
Prism, Awakener of Sol
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
16th • 5-1-0
67%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcel Harz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
12th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tobias Reincke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Florian Huepper (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Simon Rueß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 12: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
73rd • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.1
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)
20:80
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 20:80
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Simon Klein (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 20% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
71st • 1-5-0
33%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 24:76
Round 2: Loss vs Maik Wiesen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Simon Klein (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R10 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.6
Surp
1.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 45:55
Round 3: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 70% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Simon Rueß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jacob Walter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31
Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jeremie Pohl (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Marcel Harz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.