Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kim Scheerer

10th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 68:32

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.14
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.67
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.76
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Julia Happel

57th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 81:19

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Johannes Kilzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 75:25

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Linh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.10
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.02
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.76
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.50

Mark Duro

48th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Nefzger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Linus Albat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.12
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	70%	Win	✓	0.32	1.01
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Florian Huepper

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Nefzger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julius Ihle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.