National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kim Scheerer

10th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.13
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.87
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Julia Happel

57th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

4.7

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 79:21

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dominic Blasius (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Johannes Kilzer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Linh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.11
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.15
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.87
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.58

Mark Duro

48th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Nefzger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Linus Albat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.10
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.65
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.14
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Florian Huepper

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Nefzger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julius Ihle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.