Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025

Kassai of the Golden Sand

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller

5th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

7.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Linus Albat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pascal Flügel (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Maik Wiesen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

7.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.63
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.58
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.64
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.60	2.27
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Vincent Weinzierl

32nd • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

6.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Florian Koksch (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Möller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mark Duro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.62
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	25%	Win	✗	0.75	4.00

Jascha Werth

56th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 31:69

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Johannes Klaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.76
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.70	3.47

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.