National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Hammer

26th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Moerler (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Maik Wiesen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.37
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.29
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tom Tydecks

24th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Benjamin Lambrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tobias Reincke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.39
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.52
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.51
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Güntekin Koc

54th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Stettin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.96
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.23

Felix Gössel

59th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Klein (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Max Schmidt (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Mark Duro (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.78
R11	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Simon Klein

72nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Linh Tran (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.14
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.33

Finn Kleine

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jascha Werth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Rosenberger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.40
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Andre Geese

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthias Kempter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.