National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event - Kayo, Armed and Dangerous (CC)

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stefan Hofmüller

66th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

4.4

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 78:22

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Nefzger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jascha Werth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.06
R2	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.45
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.75
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.19

Alexander Rosenberger

46th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Walter Heidtmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Benjamin Lambrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.58
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.35
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Tobias Koch

53rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.94
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.55	2.33

Maximilian Stabenow

68th • 0-6-0

67%

Meta

-3.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Davis Groza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kirill Antropov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-3.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.