Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at National Championship 2025

Kayo, Armed and Dangerous

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Stefan Hofmüller

66th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

2.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 76:24

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christian Nefzger (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

95:5

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jascha Werth (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.07
R2	CC	Dash I/O	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.65
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.18
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R12	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Alexander Rosenberger

46th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Walter Heidtmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Benjamin Lambrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.59
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Tobias Koch

53rd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.6

Diff

95:5

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Kuhrt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 93:7

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Felix Gössel (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.02
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.07
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.48

Maximilian Stabenow

68th • 0-6-0

67%

Meta

-2.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Davis Groza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Richter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Nico Soni (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Kirill Antropov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.