Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event
Dorinthea Ironsong
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
21st • 6-0-0
83%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
5.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Martin Steinheuer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Harms (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tobias Reincke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rene [Puk] Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Felix Krisch (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
5.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
13th • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
4.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 43:57
Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Harms (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Round 12: Win vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
50th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.7
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Julius Ihle (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
Round 3: Win vs Laura Wichert (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65
Round 11: Loss vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Maximilian Stabenow (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Loss |
| R12 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
42nd • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.8
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Viet Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Win vs Florian Schmidt (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Felix Ebert (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
67th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Walter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tobias Reincke (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
15:85
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Maik Wiesen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexander Rosenberger (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 56:44
Round 3: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 75% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.