Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sebastian Kleiner

1st • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

7.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jan-Hendrik Brinkforth (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Robin Wagner (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Nica Roth (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

7.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.10
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.73
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.93
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.01
R13	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.68
R14	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.93
R15	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.26

Marius Krebs

31st • 4-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Freddy Friedrich (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Roger Braun (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kirill Antropov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Timo Cullmann (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.02
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.70
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Daniel Brockhage

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raphael Nero (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Stettin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.62
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Florian Schmidt

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Hauser (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 87:13

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.14
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.