Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nica Roth

2nd • 6-3-0

44%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.7

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andre Geese (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Bino Nolting (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.31
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R10	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.05
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.57
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R13	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.14
R14	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.28
R15	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Felix Ebert

28th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Beese (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Benjamin Lambrich (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.22
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Maik Wiesen

43rd • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mira Kubiczak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniel Hammer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.50
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Martin Steinheuer

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Duc Minh Tran (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Walter (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Johannes Klaus (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.55
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

Alexej Frikel

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Enes Findik (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.