Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2025

Puffin, Hightail

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Johannes Janovsky

20th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

7.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Rueß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nikolas Kersting (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mikey Dwyer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.30
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.77	3.88
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	2.00

Enes Findik

58th • 1-5-0

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexej Frikel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 4:96

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andre Geese (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rene [Puk] Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

5:95

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 19:81

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Schmidt (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 23:77

5:95

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 7:93

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	5%	Loss	✗	0.07	-

Florian Koksch

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Richter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexej Frikel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Nikolas Kersting

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Löhe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

nino Zimmermann

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.