National Championship 2025 - Germany: Main Event - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Johannes Janovsky

20th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.2

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Rueß (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nikolas Kersting (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lars Erichsen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mikey Dwyer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.20
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.06
R12	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.27

Enes Findik

58th • 1-5-0

17%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexej Frikel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 24:76

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andre Geese (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rene [Puk] Hentschel (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 25:75

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Dennis Seitz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.70
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Oliver Kuhrt

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tobias Koch (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 21:79

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Schmidt (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Florian Koksch

dropped • 2-1-0

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christopher Richter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexej Frikel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Nikolas Kersting

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phil Kohnen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Max Löhe (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

nino Zimmermann

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Macorano (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Viet Pham (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mario Trosien (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.