Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ilias Karamanis

11th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

4.3

Diff

Deck

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pascal Flügel (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 75:25

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.07
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.82
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.97
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.41
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Mario Trosien

70th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pascal Flügel (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.57
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Vincent Schreiber

dropped • 3-0-0

67%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.10

Dominic Blasius

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Linus Albat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (1.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.76	2.08

Matthias Kempter

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andre Geese (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.73
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Rene Farwer

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Möller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Roger Braun

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 30:70

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.