Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ilias Karamanis

11th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pascal Flügel (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dennis Krstic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R10	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.93
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.07
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Mario Trosien

70th • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pascal Flügel (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

80:20

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Marius Grosch (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Stefan Hofmüller (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.58
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vincent Schreiber

dropped • 3-0-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Benedikt Sylvester (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tobias Hartfiel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Dominic Blasius

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Linus Albat (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julia Happel (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.75	2.03

Matthias Kempter

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andre Geese (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Scornia (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (1.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

Rene Farwer

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Feick (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dennis Nissen (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Möller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Roger Braun

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yorick Schulte (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.