Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025 - Viserai, Rune Blood (CC)

Viserai, Rune Blood

21 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

gabriel ebady

5th • 7-1-0

50%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Payne Ummerteskee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Trenton McBride (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.49
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.45
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Rich Pauls

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Clements (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Lawton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.37
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Benjamin Lawton

12th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.40
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Florin-Cristian Loghin

20th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.09
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.47

Paula Stolzer

24th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Douglas Jones (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hayden Christoffersen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 82:18

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.12
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.33
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Alain Arduain

29th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mara Faris (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nate Kimbrel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Paul Kilcrease (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.28	0.13
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.77
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Carter Barton

32nd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 72:28

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.17
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.27
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.30

Noah Beygelman

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Irvin Tostado (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Rolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Biros (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Noah Biros

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ethan Beam (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.28	0.15
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Nick Webb

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Beam (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.28	0.28
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Timothy Long

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Casey Russell (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 82:18

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.28	0.09
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.51
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.22
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

John Paul Kilcrease

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Carter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mike Murray

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Irvin Tostado (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.50
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Max McLean

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dylan Ashcraft (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henry (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Noah Rolf

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Makowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.23
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Christopher Rivera

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mark lewis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Luke Klasman

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tyler Bullie (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 82:18

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.09
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Colin Marshall

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Douglas Jones

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paula Stolzer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Justin Kinison

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Olson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Zac Bailey

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.