Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025

Prism, Awakener of Sol

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kevin Murphy

1st • 9-1-0

90%

Meta

+3.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

4.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

90% (9/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.08
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.18
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.34
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.52
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.57
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.78
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.94

Brett Williamson

23rd • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Micah Luff (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 36:64

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 86:14

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.09
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.44
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Adam Fronsee

27th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 71:29

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paula Stolzer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.22
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.15
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Barrett Goss

28th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.38
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.43
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Logan King

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 19:81

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Carter Barton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.