Prism, Awakener of Sol at Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025
Prism, Awakener of Sol
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 9-1-0
100%
Meta
+3.4
Perf
4.4
Surp
4.1
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dylan Ashcraft (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Mercado (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (10/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
23rd • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Micah Luff (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71
90:10
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 89:11
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dawn DeLozier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Lawton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 90% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 40% | Loss |
27th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 66:34
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Stammer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Paula Stolzer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 49:51
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 56:44
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Amanda Sullender (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 17:83
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Carter Barton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.