Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025 - Aurora, Shooting Star (CC)

Aurora, Shooting Star

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Xander Toepfer

10th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ashton Dorsey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.26
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Zack Phillips

13th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Noah Biros (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John-David Cottrell (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Makowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.52
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

JP Coleman

14th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Max McLean (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Biros (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Tommy Buljan

15th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Drew Peastrel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.13
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.53
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Dawn DeLozier

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Klasman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Tyler Stammer

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bill Early (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dylan Harter (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Brian Hoffman

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ethan Beam (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Derek Cockrell

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dexter Simmons (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.