Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Natalie Birch

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Acklin (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Knutson (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Brandon Makowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Amanda Sullender

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zac Bailey (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Logan King (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.47
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Brandon Olson

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.24
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Ethan Beam

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Biros (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-

Harrison Pruitt

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.20
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Casey Russell

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brandon Makowski (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.