Ira, Scarlet Revenger at Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025
Ira, Scarlet Revenger
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Win vs Carter Barton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Casey Walker (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Roger Bodee (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
5:95
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 5:95
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 5% | Loss |
11th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.9
Surp
3.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Lawton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Amanda Sullender (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 57:43
Round 5: Win vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
38th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Evan Ford (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Derek Cockrell (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
Round 3: Win vs Carter Barton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paula Stolzer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.2
Diff
5:95
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jesse Hinman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 5:95
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sean Baker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
Round 4: Win vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 5% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Timothy Carter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Win vs Tyler Zeringue (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Epermanis (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Chase Reiser (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
5:95
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 5:95
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 5% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
1.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Brennan Tolnay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Max McLean (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.