Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025 - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brennan Tolnay

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Cisneros (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Taylor Crawford

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Fryar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Travis Yeo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Dylan Harter

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

John-David Cottrell

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.