Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025 - Kano, Dracai of Aether (CC)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Micaiah Wooten

25th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anastasia Benner (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dagan White (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Conrad Niebuhr (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jeremiah Oldes (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.05
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.29
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Jon Gibson

dropped • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Micah Luff (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian Hoffman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.11
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.69
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.52
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Tyler Zeringue

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Casey Walker (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Baker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.14
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.83

Elliot Bicker

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.4

Diff

85:15

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ben Odenheimer (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Wallace (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.37
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Zak Miller

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 67:33

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Brian Lorenz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.