Fang, Dracai of Blades at Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025

Fang, Dracai of Blades

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Conrad Niebuhr

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 44:56

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Colin Marshall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Noah Biros (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 33:67

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.18
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.06
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Zachary Knutson

dropped • 2-3-0

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Fouk (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashton Dorsey (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.08
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.94
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Mara Faris

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 33:67

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Carter (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brandon Hartman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 44:56

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Laflin

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 60:40

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bill Early (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Robbie Valdez

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phillip Bradford (Dash I/O) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pierre-Nicolas Perrin (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 42:58

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.45
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Bill Early

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Stammer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Drew Peastrel (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Laflin (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Anastasia Benner

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nick Webb (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Micah Luff

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.5

Perf

0.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 31:69

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 21:79

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (0.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.