Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025 - Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry (CC)

Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrew Rothermel

19th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trey Herring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Mui (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Clements (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Pierre-Nicolas Perrin

26th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dylan Harter (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jesse Hinman (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs JP Coleman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Kent Summerour

39th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Paul Kilcrease (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 44:56

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Bullie (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Green (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mike Murray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 44:56

100:0

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diana Green (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 98:2

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.11
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.85
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	100%	Win	✓	0.03	0.03
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Irvin Tostado

dropped • 0-3-1

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mike Murray (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 44:56

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Draw	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.