Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025 - Florian, Rotwood Harbinger (CC)

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ben Odenheimer

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Elliot Bicker (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brett Williamson (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Timothy Long (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	15%	Win	✗	0.85	0.68
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.32
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Hayden Christoffersen

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paula Stolzer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

Tyler Bullie

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Klasman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 18:82

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kent Summerour (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.