Arakni, Marionette at Battle Hardened: Memphis 2025

Arakni, Marionette

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Brian Lorenz

3rd • 7-2-0

89%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Douglas Jones (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zak Miller (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Barrett Goss (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Xander Toepfer (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs gabriel ebady (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rich Pauls (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.20
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.88
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.64
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.75
R9	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Dagan White

16th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brandon Olson (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matt Garner (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Micaiah Wooten (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cody Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Alain Arduain (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Lucas Barding

22nd • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sean Baker (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raven Williams (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Payne Ummerteskee (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Corey Frascati-Robinson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nate Kimbrel (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.09
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.39
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.64
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Thomas Battaglia

30th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carter Barton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Rivera (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Naib Mobassir (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mark lewis (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jon Gibson (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Eugene C (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Derek Chiu

dropped • 4-1-1

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Irvin Tostado (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dawn DeLozier (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Bullie (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wyatt Goehring (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Draw	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.97
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.44
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.50
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.85

Ovas Siddiqui

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Kinison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robbie Valdez (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommy Buljan (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Rothermel (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.26
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R4	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.41
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Travis Yeo

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jenan Wise (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Crawford (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.