Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
50%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Scott Weaville (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
11th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
Round 2: Win vs Aubrey Waltman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Christian Scandariato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Neet (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
20th • 5-2-0
14%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Colin Topper (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 2: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ian Thorne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58
Round 6: Win vs Mason Paladino (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dexter Canright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
55th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.9
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mason Paladino (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 27:73
Round 2: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Avery Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs None (Unknown)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Raahi Podichetty (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
58th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Logan Carlstrom (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Christopher Porter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
1.9
Surp
2.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs taylor holleman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ryon Keller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Jordan Cornwell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
25%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jordan Cornwell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Win vs nathan ericksen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 34:66
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Win |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.