SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tristin Sedlacek

13th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Porter (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Brian Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.29
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.76
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.72	1.59
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Kenny Tran

26th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs james Hohn (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kyle James (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Mint Carroll

52nd • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Hegquist (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Yost (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jayne Van Ness (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.53
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.71
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.36
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Ryder Aguilera

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Wiggins (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jayne Van Ness (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mason Paladino (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.77
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.30
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.