Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Stephen Murphy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Ryon Keller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs taylor holleman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Win |
23rd • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Hegquist (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 40:60
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mark Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 76:24
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59
100:0
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Clover Ausdemore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 98:2
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 100% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
45th • 4-2-1
57%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.8
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Draw vs Tyler Wiggins (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 76:24
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jake Denning (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nick Deschamps (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Axton Amentler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 75% | Draw |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
31st • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.6
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jack Lockwood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ian Thorne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jake Denning (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
32nd • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Avery Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Round 7: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
51st • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
3.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dave Gonzalez (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 2: Loss vs Ian Thorne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs Christian Scandariato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
70:30
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aubrey Waltman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 70:30
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jack Lockwood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 64:36
Round 6: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 75% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.