Vynnset, Iron Maiden at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Natalie Birch

47th • 3-4-0

14%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jon Cardenas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 29:71

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Kim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Axton Amentler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Christian Scandariato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 18:82

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.28
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.35
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.18	-

james Hohn

50th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Axton Amentler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 28:72

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kristian Perez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 83:17

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 22:78

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Samuel Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.43
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Abtin RAVANIPOUR

dropped • 3-2-1

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Jacob Neet (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dave Gonzalez (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ka Chan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Draw	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.66
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Aubrey Waltman

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kenneth Stacy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mason Paladino (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Odin Boseth (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.44
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Nick Tiller

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Austin Yost (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.