Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Smith (Unknown)
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs nathan ericksen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 46:54
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
21st • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hazel Evergreen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Andrew zickler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
29th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Avery Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travis Spicer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kobe Phan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 77:23
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
Round 6: Win vs Odin Boseth (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
42nd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.2
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rheyna Tehrar (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 73:27
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christian Scandariato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs aiden anable (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
75:25
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luke Meier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kristian Perez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mitchell Hamrick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Loss vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs aiden anable (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Logan Carlstrom (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 42:58
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryon Keller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Hegquist (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Stacy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.