Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
9th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.3
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Nicholas Smith (Unknown)
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs nathan ericksen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 73:27
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
21st • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.2
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Hazel Evergreen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Andrew zickler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 20% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
29th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.0
Diff
85:15
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Avery Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Travis Spicer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31
85:15
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Kobe Phan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
Round 6: Win vs Odin Boseth (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 85% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
42nd • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rheyna Tehrar (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Christian Scandariato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 16:84
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs aiden anable (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
80:20
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Luke Meier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 81:19
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Kristian Perez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 80% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 70% | Win |
dropped • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mitchell Hamrick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
Round 3: Loss vs Tabitha Stehman (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs aiden anable (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Logan Carlstrom (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryon Keller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50
Round 2: Loss vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Hegquist (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kenneth Stacy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.