Aurora, Shooting Star
11 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Logan Carlstrom (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tyler Wiggins (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
22nd • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs jordan johnson (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dexter Canright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 5: Loss vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
48th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ryon Keller (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 69:31
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ka Chan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mitchell Hamrick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ryder Aguilera (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
56th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jayne Van Ness (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
85:15
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luke Meier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 86:14
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tyler Wiggins (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs nathan ericksen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jack Lockwood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 85% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
100%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Stephen Murphy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Silverman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cary Young (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.0
Surp
1.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Hazel Evergreen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alex Hamilton (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Zyrone Powell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Oren Yishai (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jules Clark (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50
Round 4: Loss vs Jack Lockwood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Angel Jones (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs Thor Hoffman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Colin Topper (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Travis Spicer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jordan Cornwell (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mystyq Gem Pulmano (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.