Arakni, Marionette at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thor Hoffman

12th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs aiden anable (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jonathan Trossman (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.68
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Nick Deschamps

59th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Angel Jones (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 20:80

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew zickler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs AUSTIN BRILL (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs ALEXANDER HAYDEN (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Dash I/O	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.51
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.60

Jack Lockwood

61st • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andre Juarez (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Donghee Kim (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hazel Evergreen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Odin Boseth (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Samuel Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.91
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

taylor holleman

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs aiden anable (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Axton Amentler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Diego Constantakis (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 36:64

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dan Gans (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.15
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.