Azalea, Ace in the Hole at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Irby

2nd • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+3.1

Perf

5.2

Surp

4.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dan Gans (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Hazel Evergreen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Austin Yost (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.77
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R8	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.75
R9	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.84
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Justin Salmon

3rd • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ariel Struble (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.16
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.23
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.42
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.91
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.73
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Catherine Levine

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.66
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Nicholas Botchis

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Clover Ausdemore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.82
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Andre Juarez

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jack Lockwood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Gonzalez (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.