Azalea, Ace in the Hole at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 8-2-0
90%
Meta
+2.9
Perf
5.0
Surp
4.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Catherine Levine (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dan Gans (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Hazel Evergreen (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Austin Yost (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jackson Klingbeil (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jude Cornett (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
90% (9/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.0 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
3rd • 7-2-0
67%
Meta
+2.6
Perf
4.6
Surp
3.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Ariel Struble (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 45:55
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Tegan Smerdon (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
Round 5: Win vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R6 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nick Tiller (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Clover Ausdemore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jack Lockwood (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 33:67
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dave Gonzalez (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.