SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Majin Bae

1st • 9-1-0

50%

Meta

+4.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

5.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs None (Unknown)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Samuel Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kenny Tran (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew zickler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (5/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.0 Wins (5.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.25
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.56
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.53
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.19
R6	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.64
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.39
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.05
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.16

Christian Scandariato

38th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Brian Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan Carlstrom (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Odin Boseth (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Anthony Galleran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cody Broten (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pankaj Bhojwani (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 28:72

75:25

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Natalie Birch (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.32
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.87
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.29
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.39

Brian Smith

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Scandariato (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Raahi Podichetty (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tristin Sedlacek (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew zickler (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.