Jarl Vetreiði at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Jarl Vetreiði
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
62%
Meta
+1.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.2
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 89:11
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
Round 3: Win vs Ka Chan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle James (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 73:27
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
62% (5/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Win |
| R4 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mark Bradshaw (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rheyna Tehrar (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jake Denning (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Botchis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Harris (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
5:95
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 2:98
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 5% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 73:27
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Aubrey Waltman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29
90:10
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryder Aguilera (Dash I/O) - Expected: 89:11
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jacob Neet (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Kyle James (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 90% | Win |
| R5 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 75% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-1
20%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.8
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Jake Denning (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Corwin Benton (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 36:64
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Peterson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kristian Perez (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 18:82
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Adams (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 33:67
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Draw |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
60%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joshua Frailey (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
Round 1: Loss vs Aubrey Waltman (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Simon Wonser (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Stephen Murphy (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Avery Smith (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 37:63
Round 2: Loss vs Ryder Aguilera (Dash I/O) - Expected: 89:11, favorite upset
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jaina Benton (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Luke Meier (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 90% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.