Kayo, Armed and Dangerous at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Kayo, Armed and Dangerous
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tyler Kearney (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 53:47
15:85
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 14:86
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Rheyna Tehrar (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 70:30
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gavin Ceballos (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Dexter Canright (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 13:87
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Galleran (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 15% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.