Kano, Dracai of Aether at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Corwin Benton

35th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Loren (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

15:85

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 14:86

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Loss	✓	0.79	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-

Timothy Wang

39th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan Gans (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.21
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.27

Tegan Smerdon

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evan Silverman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.17
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.