Kano, Dracai of Aether at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Kano, Dracai of Aether

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Corwin Benton

35th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs sean Burke (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 82:18, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Isaac Loren (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Majin Bae (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Miller (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Abtin RAVANIPOUR (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 45:55

10:90

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Brouillet (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Loss	✓	0.82	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.99
R7	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Timothy Wang

39th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.4

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dan Gans (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brian Smith (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Heaps (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sadat Minick (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 41:59

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mint Carroll (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.35
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tegan Smerdon

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.1

Diff

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Evan Silverman (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 82:18

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.