Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC) - SCG CON Portland
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Wang (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Justin Irby (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Round 3: Win vs Colin Topper (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs taylor holleman (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.