Dorinthea Ironsong at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Avery Smith

57th • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs May Hayden (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Taylor Jennings (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 76:24

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Stacy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jake Denning (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Raahi Podichetty (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.17
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.50

Simon Wonser

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luke Manship (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kenneth Stacy (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alex Fraser (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Breithaupt (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ian Thorne (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.04
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

nathan ericksen

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Justin Schrudder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Luke Putz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Kim (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tracy Reeves (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jon Cardenas (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Kobe Phan

dropped • 2-2-0

Meta

+1.0

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ezekiel Morrison (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Case Finlay (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

15:85

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Olsen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 14:86

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adam Hamilton-Sutherland (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.43
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.86
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	15%	Loss	✗	0.14	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Mark Bradshaw

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Clover Ausdemore (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aurora Kynkor (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 30:70

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nitan Avivi-Stuhl (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.