Arakni, Marionette at Calling: São Paulo 2026

Arakni, Marionette

30 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jacob Clements

11th • 9-3-0

67%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

5.8

Surp

4.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Eduardo Costa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Renan Pamplona (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Preter Lengler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs victor giovannini (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pedro Ugioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Antonio Coutinho Neto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pedro Lecey Opitz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guilherme Luersen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (8/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (6.1 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.45
R6	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.85
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Guilherme Luersen

51st • 6-5-1

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

6.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Palamoni (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bernardo Basilio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Castanheira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Geraldi Cordeiro (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Pedro Henrique Antonio (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diego Velazquez (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Draw vs Bruno Santos (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (9/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (6.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.26
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.49
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Thiago Almeida Cunha

dropped • 4-2-1

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gustavo Rocha (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Raul Nascimento (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs João Victor Bohrer Munhoz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Daniel Reis (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Isabella Bregensk (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Eduardo Melo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.50
R5	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.03

Augusto Pinho

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yui Kitagawa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maurício Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vítor Farhat Fernandes (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ocimar Couto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gabriel Cunha (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Thomás Penchel (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bruno Santos (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.13
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.26
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.39
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Celso Alves Lima Neto

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maurício Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Matsumoto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Gian Moreira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.88
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Danny Mesias

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs John Hurtado (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs João Eduardo Cardoso Pinheiro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maurício Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Mirachi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs João Pedro Mossarelli Mofatto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vinicius Haniel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lívia Pejon (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.18
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.57

Guilherme De Deus

dropped • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vinicius Souza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Miguel Jensen (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Cunha (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Marcos Dantas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bruno Eduardo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Fabio Nozza (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Vinicius Haniel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.61
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.49
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jonas Silva

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joao Morato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Gomes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs João Pedro Mossarelli Mofatto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs DANIEL DE MENEZES (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Fábio Antunes Gomes Pitta Pinheiro (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Matheus Moreira (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.15
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lucas Aquino

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs João Brandt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Marconato (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs VITOR MILIONI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Heitor Pooli Barbosa (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Sarubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Hugo Ribeiro (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.40
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Luiz Filipe Rodrigues

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rodolfo Xavier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vinicius Souza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas De Marco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Gabarron (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs lucas gomes pacheco (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yui Kitagawa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.77
R6	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

Maurício Tavares

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Augusto Pinho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danny Mesias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Mauricio Souto Silveira (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Marcos Rogerio Silva (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs LUCAS Dias (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Fernandes Andrade (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.48
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.70

Matheus Moreira

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs WEVERSON OLIVEIRA (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs André Lim (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Vinicius Haniel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rodrigo Mesquita (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jonas Silva (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.12
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.34
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.40
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rafael Sarubo

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Henrique Pereira (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kaina Gimenez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs RODRIGO SALVATTE (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Aquino (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mateus Batista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Fabio Nozza (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.34
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Rafael de Oliveira Julio

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlos Tovar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Artur Campos (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Brian Zambelli Tello (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bernardo Coelho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

João Pereira

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danton Lima (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Feliz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs João Victor Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joaquìn Figueroa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs MATHEUS TEIXEIRA OTRE (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bruno Eduardo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.37
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

IAN MESQUITA

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Antonio Brust (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Conrado Fortunato (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Antonio Coutinho Neto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Preciado Espitia (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Henrique Rodrigues (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.29
R3	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Luiz Bretas

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Fabio Aurelio (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roberto Oliveira (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Henrique Rodrigues (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Xisto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vinicius Knop (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.15
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.50
R6	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Pedro Augusto Mendes de Negreiros

dropped • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rodrigo Canejo (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Felipe Loyola (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ocimar Couto (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rafael Augusto Belo Silva (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marcos Vinicius Rezende Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.90
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Breno Santos

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Luz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Cebollada (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vinicius Knop (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mateus Batista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Zé Luis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.13
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Roosevelt Villela

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs IGOR MARREIRO LUCENA (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vinicius Borges (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Macarini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs DANIEL DE MENEZES (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bernardo Basilio (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.28
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Felipe Aluoto

dropped • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diego Camargo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs VITOR VANACOR (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ignacio Rodríguez Villasuso (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Gabriel Eluan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Renan Salomao (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.25
R2	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

Lucas Tenorio

dropped • 2-2-1

40%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Zack Maher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlos Perilla (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Colaco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ricardo Preter Lengler (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Lucas Mirachi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-

Leonardo Tozato

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Ugioni (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Caio Mafra (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Gian Moreira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.53
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Matheus Nunes Lino da Silva

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Xisto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henrique Liberal (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs lucas barbosa (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.84
R4	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.55
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

XANDRE BORGES

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo de Campos Dorini (Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant) - Expected: 75:25

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kaina Gimenez (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs RODOLPHO ETINGER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lyath Goldmane, Vile Savant	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Kaina Gimenez

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomaz Sardinha (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arthur Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Sarubo (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs XANDRE BORGES (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.28
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Pedro Janousek

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Josh Oliveira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jonathan Alves (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Danilo Maeda dos Santos (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs MATHEUS TEIXEIRA OTRE (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 74:26

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.43

Renan Pamplona

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Alves (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rodrigo Canejo (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bruno Cebollada (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Mathias Medina

dropped • 0-3-1

75%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Heitor Martins (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Diego Ampudia (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomás Penchel (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Morelli Junior (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	60%	Draw	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Gustavo Thunder_red

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Maria Fernanda Correia Martins Corrêa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Bortolucci (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas de Figueiredo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Draw	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.