Vynnset, Iron Maiden at Calling: São Paulo 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

9 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yan Pedroni

2nd • 11-4-0

60%

Meta

+4.5

Perf

7.6

Surp

5.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicolas De Marco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Breno Santos (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luís Mateus Bossi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Danrley Lucas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Guilherme Luersen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Pedro Lecey Opitz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Brodie Spurlock (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Alexandre Castanheira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Pedro Lecey Opitz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs VITOR MILIONI (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 24:76

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

60% (9/15 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 11 actual)

Surprise

7.6 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.23
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.56
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.11
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.59
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.53
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.72
R11	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R13	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.93
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.37
R15	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Brodie Spurlock

5th • 10-3-0

54%

Meta

+4.6

Perf

6.9

Surp

5.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roberto Cardoso (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matheus Alcantara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luiz Bretas (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Carlos Perilla (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ivan Taranto (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Vinicius Timm Toniazzo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Thiago Lomba (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Diego Souza (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

54% (7/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.14
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.15
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.23
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.45
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.80
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.46
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.53
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.76
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.24
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.91
R13	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Ian Alves

dropped • 1-5-0

17%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Antonio Coutinho Neto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Renan Albino da Cunha (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rogelio Passafaro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Luiz Bussolli (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs VITOR VANACOR (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Alves (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

André Lim

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pedro Gradella (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matheus Moreira (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs victor giovannini (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas De Marco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Celso Alves Lima Neto (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Lucas Moraes

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Eluan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thiago Camargo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs João Brandt (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rafael De Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

80:20

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Feliz (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.29
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.39
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Rafael Fabris

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arthur Rocha (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Átila Lima (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonardo Marcelino Vieira (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raul Nascimento (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs RODRIGO SALVATTE (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.83
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.19
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

santiago kitashima

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs João Pedro Mossarelli Mofatto (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fernando Falquetto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matheus Alcantara (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joao Morato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Lewis (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.53	0.43
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-

Artur Campos

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bruno Santos (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yui Kitagawa (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael de Oliveira Julio (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Miguel Ardovino (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 30:70

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-

Luiz Bussolli

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlos Eduardo Amaral da Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs YURI PIMENTEL (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Carlos Mauricio Souto Silveira (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Alves (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.